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You might just brush that off as football just being 'a funny old game', but what happens if Team A are being 'lucky' on a consistent basis? What if Team B continue to perform well without getting the results they deserve? And this, essentially, is what Expected Goals is about; that weird stat thing they use on Match of the Day and in the papers. What is Expected Goals? When it comes to placing your bets, there are two ways in which we can leverage Expected Goals numbers to our advantage:Short Term Sometimes, it is worthwhile breaking down a team's form in blocks of, say, four games. We say 'exclusive', there are plenty of other folk doing something similar, but ours uses an xP per game approach. 25, the team 'winning' takes three points and the loser gets zilch. They have game-by-game xG data for the Premier League and other top divisions across Europe, and publish league tables based on actual points and adapted Expected Points standings.

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